Skip to content
Catholic Online Logo

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

9/2/2013 (7 months ago)

Catholic Online (www.catholic.org)

Recessions of 1973, 1980, 1991, 2001 and 2008 were the direct result of pain at the pump

In predicting hard financial times - it's best to look to the gas pump on the city street corner. That's the sage bits of advice from Forbes columnist Robert Lenzner. "I was reminded by Kirk Spano, the founder of Bluemound Asset Management today that spiking oil prices in 1973, 1980, 1991, 2001 and 2007 contributed to a greater or lesser degree to the economic recessions of 1973-4, 1980-81, 1991-92, 2001-2003 and 2007-08 that were painful for all equity investors," he warns.

Forbes columnist Robert Lenzner also offers word of caution about the months ahead. ' . In the coming few weeks, you are going to hear a great deal of alarmist prognostications by the dooms-dayers'

Forbes columnist Robert Lenzner also offers word of caution about the months ahead. " . In the coming few weeks, you are going to hear a great deal of alarmist prognostications by the dooms-dayers"

Article Highlights

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

Catholic Online (www.catholic.org)

9/2/2013 (7 months ago)

Published in Business & Economics

Keywords: Robert Lenzner, Forbes magazine, recession, oil prices, political instability


LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - Lenzner also offers word of caution about the months ahead. " . In the coming few weeks, you are going to hear a great deal of alarmist prognostications by the dooms-dayers. They will probably suggest that crude oil prices could go back to $150 a barrel where they topped out in July, 2008, or straining to get your attention pick the even greater scare of $200 barrel oil. At $200 a barrel, the emerging economies of Southeast Asia will be badly hurt at a delicate moment for the world economy."

Predictions are uniformly gloomy. Oil is quickly becoming scarce again across the worldwide stage. Strikes by oilfield workers in Libya have reduced daily production of crude oil dramatically from 1.6 million barrels a day to an estimated 250,000 barrels a day. There have also been bombings of pipelines in Iraq which have interrupted production. This activity promises to put a cap on Iraq's ability to increase oil production. Production in Nigeria has fallen by 10 percent daily due to leaks caused on account of political instability.

"At $107 a barrel for West Texas crude and $117 a barrel for Brent crude in Europe, we obviously are quite far from the peak in oil prices in July, 2008, which came right on the eve of the financial crisis, the great recession and the reduction in driving by American consumers.

"The troublesome breaking point could be a spike through $120 a barrel that holds due to the odds that we will have to send some cruise missiles into Syria, creating tension, and triggering speculative trading in crude oil. A worst case scenario would be the spread of violent action to other nations in the Middle East," Lenzner says.

An inspection of a chart of the rise and fall of oil prices you find that they always slide fast providing profits for the short traders. "George Soros, I happen to know, went short crude oil at $137 a barrel and went long gold at $900 an ounce for one of his best long-short trading positions ever. By January, 2009 crude oil prices had fallen some 75 percent from the peak to the $36-$40 a barrel level. So, that kind of volatility has to be kept in mind during the playing out of the Syrian crisis. Also, you have to bear in mind the not so mini-crises happening in more major oil producers such as Iraq, Libya and Nigeria.

"A perverse angle on Middle Eastern oil affected me personally today when I received an offer to invest in the oil production of the Syrian Petroleum Corporation, which some shady characters offered to me in return for my helping to invest proceeds of the sale of other Syrian crude. I was used to these phony offers coming from all across the globe, and instantly deleted the matter from my computer so as to avoid being bugged. I was a bit shaken that such a weird email came from such an auspicious Anglo-Saxon name," Lenzner adds wryly.

---


Pope Francis calls for your 'Prayer and Action'


© 2014 - Distributed by THE NEWS CONSORTIUM

Pope Francis Prayer Intentions for March 2014
Respect for Women:
That all cultures may respect the rights and dignity of women.
Vocations: That many young people may accept the Lordís invitation to consecrate their lives to proclaiming the Gospel.



Comments


More Business & Economics

Is the 'Mark of the Beast' the future of money? Watch

Image of Theoretically, a unique identifier is attached to your digital wallet, could transmits payment for the groceries directly to the store.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

Some futuristic thinkers say that in the next 20 years or so, when people go to the market, they will pick up the items they need and leave - without the benefit of paying a cashier. Sensors will identify a consumer by a mark, their way of walking or facial ... continue reading


Credit card wars: Wal-Mart sues Visa over transaction 'conspiracy' Watch

Image of Wal-Mart objects to the requirement that retailers who want to accept any payments via Visa honor all issuers' Visa-branded cards.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

In an ongoing war over credit cards in the modern retail environment, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is suing Visa Inc. for allegedly conspiring with banks to fix transaction fees. It's just the latest in a long, ongoing legal fight between retailers and card issuers. ... continue reading


In spite of tax revenue all-time highs - government still running in the deficit Watch

Image of Congress passed and President Obama signed

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

According to the Monthly Treasury Statement for February, inflation-adjusted federal tax revenues hit a record $1,104,947,000,000 in the first five months of fiscal 2014. It would stand to reason that the government would have partially dug itself out of its ... continue reading


'Regulated' Bitcoin exchanges planned in New York Watch

Image of Singapore has imposed a tax on Bitcoin trading and using it to pay for services, after classifying it as goods, rather than a currency.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

In a sign that the digital form of exchange in popularity - and by extension, legitimacy, New York's financial regulator has called on firms to submit proposals to set up "regulated" exchanges for currency such as the Bitcoin. LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) ... continue reading


One, fell swoop: Italy's biggest bank to cut 8,500 jobs Watch

Image of The company is to create an internal

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

"I believe the group has turned the page," Italy's largest bank, UniCredit's chief executive, Federico Ghizzoni said. "We could have staggered the losses over several years. We decided to take them all in one year." It wasn't good news for many - Unicredit has ... continue reading


$30 trillion increase from $70 trillion between mid-2007 and mid-2013 sends global debt over $100 trillion Watch

Image of The bank is owned by 60 central banks and hosts the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, a group of regulators and central bankers that sets global capital standards.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

Everyone at some point seems to 'rob Peter to pay Paul' - especially international governments. During the European debt crisis, many nations borrowed money to keep their governments solvent. As a result, global debt increased by $30 trillion from the original ... continue reading


Wowza! Restaurant starts charging diners for Obamacare Watch

Image of Obamacare sounds nice, but somebody has to pay. At least Gator's Dockside is up front about it.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

Going out to dinner? You'd better be prepared to pay a little bit extra thanks to Obamacare. A chain of Florida restaurants is tacking a surcharge onto diner's bills to help keep expenses at bay and workers on the payroll. LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - A small ... continue reading


Time banking - where time is BETTER than MONEY Watch

Image of In a time bank, time is the money.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

Alternative currencies such as Bitcoin and BerkShares are gaining popularity as people look for ways to escape what they see as a rigged and flawed system of monetary exchange in government currencies. However, the idea of banking time as opposed to money is also ... continue reading


Google tops Exxon as world's second-most valuable company - for a day Watch

Image of The one day-surge demonstrated the growing role of technology in the economy.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

It was quite a day on Wall Street. Google, the world's largest online advertiser through its dominant search engine, had a higher market capitalization before falling back at the close in New York to a value of $395.4 billion compared to Exxon's $395.7 billion. ... continue reading


Bill Gates thinks poverty will be eliminated by 2035... But he's missing this one thing! Watch

Image of Bill Gates thinks the world will be more prosperous with absolute poverty for nations eliminated by 2035, mostly as a result of advances in medicine and technology.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

Bill Gates has said that he does not expect to see anymore "poor countries" left in the world by 2035. In his third ,claiming that the world of today was better off than at any time in history and that in 20 years, it will be even more so. LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic ... continue reading


All Business & Economics News

Newsletters

Newsletter Sign Up icon

Stay up to date with the latest news, information, and special offers

Daily Readings

Reading 1, Isaiah 61:1-3, 6, 8-9
1 The spirit of Lord Yahweh is on me for Yahweh has ... Read More

Psalm, Psalms 89:21-22, 25, 27
21 My hand will always be with him, my arm will make ... Read More

Gospel, Luke 4:16-21
16 He came to Nazara, where he had been brought up, ... Read More

Reading 2, Revelation 1:5-8
5 and from Jesus Christ, the faithful witness, the ... Read More

Saint of the Day

Saint of the Day for April 17th, 2014 Image

St. Anicetus
April 17: Anicetus was a Syrian from Emesa. He became pope about 155 and ... Read More

Inform, Inspire & Ignite Logo

Find Catholic Online on Facebook and get updates right in your live feed.

Become a fan of Catholic Online on Facebook


Follow Catholic Online on Twitter and get News and Product updates.

Follow us on Twitter