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Why the Tide is Turning

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By Dennis M. Howard

Is the nation experiencing a slow but dramatic shift in public opinion about abortion and related issues affecting the future of the family?

Some time ago I had lunch with a layman known for his lifelong support for Catholic causes, who expressed the pessimistic view that "the Supreme Court will never reverse Roe v. Wade, not in our lifetimes anyway."

Others expressed a similar pessimism following the recent sexual abuse scandals, judging that they seriously weakened the ability of the church to sway public opinion on great moral issues. Still others disagree, saying that the opposite may be happening as many bishops take a more candid, public stance on significant issues.

The crisis may in fact be leading Catholics toward becoming a more open, more repentant and forgiving church. The crisis demonstrated that the old "siege mentality" that built walls between clergy and laity and between the church and the world simply no longer works.

But is that enough to offer hope that a reversal of Roe v. Wade might be imminent? In fact, one of the things that has sustained the status quo on abortion is the reluctance of many clergy to publicly explore controversial issues related to human sexuality. The sexual abuse debate certainly ended that. The pastoral letter on the theology of the human body recently issued by Archbishop John J. Myers of Newark illustrates the range and depth such a public discussion might take.

Meanwhile, history is full of examples of moral and social trends that dramatically reversed themselves. The fall of the Roman Empire, to cite the most obvious, once gave way to the rise of Christianity and the Age of Faith.

More recently, such changes have moved in the opposite direction. It took more than 30 years of agitation by Margaret Sanger and Planned Parenthood before abortion became the law of the land. Now, 30 years later, we may be approaching a point where a reversal is not just possible, but perhaps even predictable.

We have to remember that we are dealing with a problem which, like slavery, is fundamentally moral and spiritual, but at the same time has enormous social, political, and economic consequences. It is not a problem that can be solved by anyone's edict or fiat - either the Supreme Court's or Archbishop Myers' -- but one that will require profound changes in dominant public attitudes about morals and mores.

In short, it's something that will require wide-ranging public discussion and debate on many levels - indeed the kind of debate that Roe v. Wade itself preempted. The history of the last 30 years has demonstrated that minds and hearts won't be changed about abortion through activist confrontations or polarizing political action. On the contrary, the evidence is mounting that minds and hearts are increasingly being changed through faith-based education and by abortion survivors' sharing their own experience, strength and hope with one another. Those survivors include women, men, and children who escaped the abortionists' killing machines through quirks of fate and faith.

Such heartening changes are already well underway in the growing success of pro-life seminars for teens, hope and healing workshops for post-abortive women, expanding research studies into post-abortion syndrome and the abortion-breast cancer link, as well as a redirection of pro-life efforts towards education and away from confrontation.

Meanwhile, there has also been a dramatic shift in public attitudes toward traditional values triggered by larger events like that of September 11, 2001.

Suddenly Americans were confronted with evidence of their own vulnerability and of the fragility and sacredness of life itself. In an instant, a lot of fundamental values suddenly seemed far more important to many people than they had in over 30 years.

Marriages surged as more and more couples who had been living together reached decisions to make permanent commitments. Births also surged and a mini-baby boomlet attracted public notice. Visibly, the number of babies and small children in our churches rose as well. In my wife's place of work, 3 out of 5 of her co-workers took time off in the last two years to have babies. That hadn't happened in years.

Meanwhile, the number of abortions reported nationally continued its steady decline, including a fairly steep decline among teens.

There was evidence in the way people voted, too, even when abortion was not a upfront campaign issue. In fact, abortion appeared to be a major underlying factor in both the 2000 and the 2002 elections because it defined the way many people voted.

George Bush, for example, won by carrying 30 out of the 36 states with the nation's lowest abortion rates, while his opponent carried 12 out of the 15 states with the highest abortion rates, including the District of Columbia.

Indeed, the famous map of red and blue states corresponds closely to an abortion map of America. Where people rejected abortion, the pro-life candidate won. Where they embraced it, his opponent was the victor.

The same thing happened in the 2002 Congressional elections, where 65% of new House members are avowedly pro-life. National Right to Life PAC reported victories in 78% of the races in which it was involved, while the pro-abortion Emily's List lost 76% of its top 21 races.

I stated years ago that we would know when the abortion battle is nearly over when a) the number of babies born each year starts rising significantly, and b) when pro-abortion candidates can no longer get elected to national office.

The first of these is already happening. The second is now happening, too.

What most people, including liberal pro-abortion leaders, do not seem to realize is what a fragile hold the pro-abortion "majority" has on the public will.

Indeed, it is hardly a majority at all, since a majority of the American people have never favored abortion on demand, and more than 80% reject its more horrific variations like so-called "partial birth abortion" where a viable baby is killed while being delivered.

How fragile is the pro-abortion majority? Let's look at 3 major bases for support for pro-abortion politicians who also happen to be largely Democrats.

1. In 2000, Al Gore's lead in the popular vote was accounted for entirely by his 520,000 vote lead among 26 million Catholic voters.

If just 1 out of 100 Catholics changed their votes, that lead would have disappeared.

We know from surveys that about 35% of Catholics are strongly pro-life, about 20% are pro-choice, and the other 45% are confused or poorly informed. When properly informed, about half of that confused group typically moves toward the pro-life position, raising the pro-life segment from 35% to 55%.

In other words, if faith-based pro-life education was pursued with any real vigor, that narrow 1% margin for a pro-abortion candidate like Al Gore would disappear in a wink.

2. The second major base of support is the +90% majority African-American voters give leaders who want them to believe that "abortion is a civil rights issue."

In fact, abortion has cost the lives of 11 million African-American babies since 1973. That's nearly a third of the total black population in the U.S. It's also 5,000 times the number of lynchings of African-Americans since 1900.

Indeed, African-Americans have every reason to ask: If lynching was genocidal, why isn't abortion?

Moreover, abortion is draining political influence and power for blacks. If those 11 million babies had lived, there might well be 20 more members of the Congressional Black Caucus than there are today.

If black support for pro-abortion politicos dropped from 90% to 80% or 70%, it would be all over for pro-abortion political leaders at the national level. Currently, George Bush has a 35% favorable rating among African-Americans. If that edge holds, the days of 90% bloc voting by black voters may soon be over.

3. Finally, there is the 5.6 million vote lead Al Gore enjoyed among unmarried women, based on the popular misconception that "abortion helps women."

Any erosion in this support would be extremely costly to the dominant pro-choice political base.

Thanks to research into abortion and breast cancer by Dr. Joel Brind, Ph.D., and into the post-abortion syndrome phenomenon by David C. Reardon, Ph.D., women are becoming more aware that, far from helping and liberating women, abortion has traumatized, maimed, and damaged the lives of millions of women - many times more than back alley abortions ever did.

There are an estimated 20 million women among abortion's "walking wounded" - women who are enduring a prolonged struggle with depression, dashed hopes, and broken dreams - fully ten per cent reaching the level of clinical severity or attempted suicide. The diminished personal productivity of their lives is beyond estimation.

Feminists for Life is carrying this message to single, married and working women everywhere through their attractive quarterly magazine. The American Feminist ($25 a year. Write: PO Box 2695, Springfield, Va. 22152, or through their website: www.feministsforlife.org).

4. Finally, there are the social and economic consequences of abortion that are now so evident they can no longer be denied.

The facts speak for themselves. The estimated 44 million abortions since Roe v. Wade are equivalent to the population of our 57 largest cities from New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles, all the way down to cities the size of Anaheim, Calif., and Buffalo. NY. Each passing year adds five more cities to the toll.

If the cost to the country for the war on terrorism will run to $300 billion or more, the cost to our nation for abortion on demand is far higher.

The estimated loss in downstream tax revenue alone is $11.5 trillion, and the loss in personal income is 3 or 4 times that. The economic toll is unprecedented. Forty-four million abortions brought an end to America's famous "youth market" - reducing our under-30 population by a dramatic 28%. Add the impact of more efficient birth control, and the reduction is as much as 45%. Meanwhile, similar trends were happening in Europe and Japan.

Thanks to this "Baby Bust," our economy faces a crisis in consumer demand that is shared by Europe and Japan, contributing to a worldwide economic crisis that will grow with time. Famed management consultant Peter Drucker calls it "the number 1 management problem of the 21st Century."

The Baby Bust has also led to a critical shortage of key professionals in fields like nursing and education that will only get worse as Baby Boom professionals begin retiring in record numbers. They now make up the largest segment of the nursing profession, but they'll be retiring at the same time their fellow Boomers are reaching their elder years. It will be like two large liners colliding in mid-ocean on a foggy night.

The mistake the "population explosion" propagandists made is that they saw children simply as a cost, when in fact every child is a future consumer, a future producer, and a future taxpayer. In an economic sense, every child is an investment in the future human resources of the country. No kids, no future.

In 1992, I began warning of an approaching economic crisis based on what the data indicated. I repeated these warnings in The Washington Times National Weekly in 1995 and 1996. In 1997, I predicted a 50:50 chance of a recession by 2000.

Yet denial in the media persisted. In January, 1998, I debated Gene Epstein, economics editor of Barron's, rebutting his claim that the Bull Market on Wall Street would continue for another ten years.

By April, 2000, the Bull Market was over. Now, few experts are willing to guess when the decline will end, but there is little doubt the economy will remain slow until the demographics improve, and that could take another decade or longer.

So when will the tide finally turn?

It will turn when America finally has a pro-life majority. It will turn when pro-abortion candidates can no longer get elected. It will turn when our leaders are forced to listen.

Meanwhile, what can the average family -- your family -- do to deal with the consequences of America's encounter with the "culture of death?"

1. Never lose faith or hope, and do your best to instill the same faith and hope in the hearts and minds of your children.

2. Pray unceasingly for all who have been misled by the false gospel of the culture of death. Pray especially for fellow Christians who have been misled.

3. Recognize that truth and light are the best answers to darkness and denial. Reach out for information on abortion and its impact, and share that information with your family and your friends. There is no better protection for your children than the plain truth about abortion, STD's, and the wisdom of premarital abstinence. It is way too late when they have already begun single dating, or after they have begun sex education classes in school.

4. Compassionately reach out by word and by example to friends who may be misinformed about abortion. You never know when you will be able to help someone in need.

Meanwhile, if everyone who believes in life can touch the heart of just one other person, America will have a pro-life majority sooner than we think.

___________________________________

Dennis M. Howard is President and founder of The Movement for a Better America, Inc., PO Box 470. Mt. Freedom, NJ. He is also a veteran writer, editor, advertising creative director, and marketing consultant whose career spans more than 50 years.

Contact

Movement for a Better America
http://www.yourcatholicvoice.org NJ, US
Dennis Howard - President, 973 895-7367

Email

mba4life@aol.com

Keywords

Pro-Life

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