California matters! State's primary will serve as referendum on Hillary Clinton campaign

If Clinton is upset, it could change the thinking before the national Democratic convention.

A few months ago, California was Hillary country. The state was a shoo-in for the moderate Democrat who was likely to win the nomination well before the state's late primary on June 7. Then, her campaign collapsed and put California up for grabs.

LOS ANGELES, CA (California Network) - Hillary Clinton will win her party's nomination in New Jersey on Tuesday, but that's only if superdelegates, who could still change their votes, are counted. She cannot win by pledged delegates at all, but neither can Sanders.

However, California, which is the most populous state in the union is seen as an important referendum on Hillary Clinton's candidacy. A win by challenger Bernie Sanders would be enough to serve as a critique of her bid and could taint her legitimacy.

Rival Bernie Sanders has closed more than a 30 point gap on Hillary Clinton in the past six months to come within striking range. He has canvassed the state visiting even small towns and communities and he has staged massive rallies. One rally in Oakland attracted more than 60,000 people according to city authorities.

Sanders has massive support among young voters and with independents. He has regularly closed massive gaps in primary polls to score virtual ties or even upsets against Clinton across several primaries.

But does it matter?

From a practical perspective, it might not because Hillary Clinton will win her party's nomination, and she stands a fair chance of beating Donald Trump in November, although beating Trump will not be as easy as her supporters assume.

Many pundits argue that California does matter. The reason is, it's a test of her viability. Do the voters of one of the nation's most progressive states really like Hillary Clinton? An upset by Sanders would suggest no.

Democratic strategists are looking at Sanders vs. Trump figures and comparing them to Clinton's. The fact is, Bernie Sanders commands broad support from independents, and that means he stands a better chance of beating Trump in November than Clinton. Recent polls suggest that Trump is already ahead of Clinton, although only slightly.

Sanders could guarantee the Democrats retain the White House, and possibly the next two or three Supreme Court nominations, but the Democratic establishment appears intent upon putting up Clinton, who is looking increasingly like a crap shoot.

Her sinking ratings are only part of the problem. She's also facing indictment for how she mishandled classified emails during her tenure as Secretary of State. As the FBI investigation draws to a close, witnesses are pleading the Fifth as they are deposed, creating the appearance they are guilty and trying to hide criminal behavior. None of this boosts Clinton's favorability ratings.

Democrats have until July to settle on their final decision. Clinton or Sanders will be chosen by the Democratic establishment as superdelegates make the call between the two. For now, it appears Clinton has the vast majority of the superdelegates on her side, and she is still expected to win. But if her polls continue to slip, or if she is indicted, there is a chance those superdelegates could turn against her and change their votes to Sanders.

Whether or not that has a chance of happening will depend in part on how California goes. A big Clinton victory will send the message that despite all the publicity and questions, the voters still want Clinton. However, a Sanders upset would send the message that millions of voters are changing their minds about Clinton, and the party's leaders will need to think twice before going all-in on who appears to be the weaker candidate.

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