Whoa! Secret Microsoft algorithm predicts wins for Clinton, Trump in Iowa and beyond

Predictive powers of internet data are being put to test.

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are predicted to win tonight's Iowa caucuses according to a sophisticated algorithm used by Microsoft's Bing search engine to predict outcomes. The search engine has an excellent record.

LOS ANGELES, CA (California Network) - Microsoft is predicting that Clinton and Trump will win their parties' nominations, handily with Clinton entering the Iowa caucuses with nearly a five-point lead over Bernie Sanders. Trump has nearly a ten-point lead over Ted Cruz.

While Trump's success is in little doubt, the bulk of the attention is on the race between Clinton and Sanders. Clinton is the mainstream candidate with over a year of preparation in Iowa, Sanders is a democratic socialist with a late start. Sander's populist message has resonated well with voters, especially millennials. Both Clinton and Sanders have commanding leads over various demographics, but Sanders seems to have more enthusiastic support. But Clinton remains firmly in the lead across most polls. Bing is calling the race for Clinton, but there is enough doubt the make the prediction dubious.

The race between the two Democrats will be decided by X factors, such as turnout by demographics, and who O'Malley supporters will ultimately caucus with.

Microsoft has been using Bing to predict outcomes of football games and political contests as a means of beta testing their algorithms. The hope is that someday, Bing will be able to forecast outcomes well in advance. Such algorithms are secret formulas, but there seems to be a lot of science to the madness of using a search engine to predict outcomes.

Known as crowd-sourcing, science suggests it is eerily accurate in coming up with correct answers. If programmers get the algorithm just right, they can predict just about anything. This has a lot to do with predictability of human behavior. As it turns out, humans are frighteningly predictable. Humans in large numbers are even more so.

Such applications have practical purposes. For example, early research shows that the Internet can predict when you're about to get sick, a few days before you know it. 

If Microsoft has their formula right, then Bing could become a modern-day oracle that is instantly accessible to all. Bing has predicted American Idol contests and the World Cup, with accuracy. It did predict New England would play the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl, getting half of the prediction right -or wrong, depending on how you want to look at it.

This suggests that while Bing is incredibly powerful, there are still some X-factors which can change the final outcome.

Will Sanders have enough X-factor power to overcome Hillary Clinton? If the latest poll numbers which suggest Hillary Clinton has a 4-point lead are accurate, then no. Not even with good turnout and picking up the lion's share of O'Malley supporters will Sanders close the gap with Clinton.

For what it's worth, Bing has also called the next three state contests, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada for Trump. Sanders is winning New Hampshire, and Clinton will easily carry South Carolina and Nevada, according to Bing.

IOWA:

Clinton 50.1%
Sanders 46.8%
O'Malley 3.1%

Trump 39.8%
Cruz 30.5%
Rubio 12.9%

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Clinton 58.4%
Sanders 40.5%
O'Malley 1.1%

Trump 40.2%
Cruz 13.1%
Rubio 12.6%
Kasich 11.9%

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Clinton 63.5%
Sanders 36.4%
O'Malley 0.1%

Trump 44.3%
Cruz 22.6%
Rubio 14.7%

NEVADA:

Clinton 91.2%
Sanders 8.7%
O'Malley 0.1%

Trump 39.6%
Cruz 20.8%
Carson 18.4%
Rubio 12.6%