Guest Editorial: McCain's Veep Dilemma - Who Fits the Job Description?

Robert Stackpole, STD of Redeemer Pacific College, a long time political observer, handicaps the current potential running mates for the Republican Presidential Nominee, Senator John Mccain

LOS ANGELES (Catholic Online) - Now that Senator John McCain has "clinched" the Republican presidential sweepstakes, it is time for the nominee and his party to begin to consider the second slot on the ticket.

Vice-Presidential Nominees for Vice-President can "make" or "break" a campaign, as George McGovern's disastrous choice of Senator Tom Eagleton back in 1972 so clearly demonstrated. Expect McCain to take plenty of time over this decision, perhaps leaving it to the convention itself before announcing his running mate.

In fact, this time around the choice of the Republican Veep nominee will be especially crucial to the party's electoral fortunes.

If McCain wins the election in November he will be the oldest first-term president in U.S. history. Voters will pay especially close attention to whomever he chooses as his running mate, therefore, for they will wonder whether McCain will have the health and strength to finish out his term(s) of office.

The Vice-Presidency may be a thankless job, but it is, after all, only "one heartbeat away" from the Presidency itself. Moreover, the Republicans are in trouble with the electorate, and everybody knows it.

The country has drifted to the left of the political spectrum during the unpopular second term of President Bush, and now the only thing that stands in the way of a newly elected Democrat in the White House, backed by Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress, with free reign to dramatically change the course of the nation, is the campaign that McCain and his running mate will wage over the next eight months.

Quin Hillyer of the American Spectator recently summed up the ideal Veep choice for McCain as follows:

McCain needs a solidly "full-spectrum" conservative, reformist, youngish, cool, well rounded, brainy, all-media-respected, articulate, telegenic, border-state/constituency challenging, non-party weakening, executive experienced running mate who can handle the presidency at a moment's notice.

In other words, he needs a young Teddy Roosevelt, or the famous five-term Governor and golden-mouthed orator from Virginia, Patrick Henry. Too bad they are not available!

Let's examine Hillyer's criteria a little more closely, however, to see if a more realistic set of qualifications for the job can be established.

1.Yes, McCain needs a conservative to shore up his support with the Republican base, especially with social and fiscal conservatives. But a "full-spectrum conservative" might be overdoing it.

McCain must not give the impression that he is "caving in" too much to the Far Right of his party; that would alienate his appeal to independents, voters he certainly must woo in significant numbers to win this election.

Thus, while he needs someone conservative enough to rally the base to turn out on election day and keep the "red states" red, it must not be a strident or inflexible idealogue who would scare off the independents.

2.A "youngish" running mate indeed would be preferable, to balance out McCain's appeal to the elderly, but not someone so "green behind the ears" that the electorate would feel uncomfortable about the V.P. taking the helm if McCain's health should falter.

3."Executive-experienced" would be another "plus' -- but in this case it would be essential for the nominee to have gained that experience outside of the present administration in the White House.

The country is in a restless, anti-Washington mood, and someone too closely identified with the mess inside the beltway would be an electoral liability. A successful Republican governor would be best, and a good "track-record" on economic matters would also be an asset.

4."All-media respected"? That would be an impossible qualification for a Republican, given the leftward tilt of the main-stream-media. The best McCain can hope for is someone "likeable", and grudgingly respected by the m.s.m., someone who can stand up to their (at times grossly anti-conservative) biases when he/she is being interviewed, or questioned in a debate, without loosing their cool.

A good debater would also be an advantage, because McCain is only average at best in debates. Of course, it goes without saying that the Republican Veep choice also must be ethically above reproach: any hint of scandal in his/her past and the m.s.m. will eat the candidate alive.

In short, McCain's people had better do their homework before they make their choice, or this general election could be lost even before the final gavel falls at the Republican convention.

5.Finally, the best Veep candidate would be someone who is not perceived to be too much of an "establishment" figure. McCain won the Republican party's nomination, with the help of a considerable number of independent voters in several primary states, in part because of his long-standing reputation for "straight talk," and for being a maverick who refuses to be a stooge of big corporate interests and party bosses. He needs a running mate who has not been associated with the GOP's messy recent past.

So, there is the job description. Now who can possibly fill it? Let's look at the names being mentioned most often in the news, and see who measures up -- and who doesn't.

1.Mitt Romney: here is a Republican ex-Governor of Massachusetts, certainly not associated with the mess in Washington, and with a good economic track record, having taken significant steps to reverse his state's economic decline.

Bill O'Reilly of Fox News thinks he would be a good choice. Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Anne Coulter would be positively ecstatic. But that is just the problem.

The choice of Romney would be widely perceived as a complete sell-out to the Far Right. Voters will not have forgotten Romney's attempts in the primary campaign to portray McCain as a "liberal," and the press is well aware that the two men have little respect for one another. They were practically at "daggers-drawn" just a month ago.

Moreover, Romney's extreme anti-immigration rhetoric during the primaries would certainly be widely aired by the Democrats, and that would finish off any chance the McCain might have had to recover some of the Latino vote.

Many conservative Evangelicals within the Republican Party also remain wary of having a Mormon vice-president.

Finally, a candidate who largely failed to "connect" with the voters in the primaries, despite spending over $80 million on his campaign, does not inspire confidence. His 'flips" on major social issues just in time for the 2008 campaign failed to convince social conservatives that he was "for real." He probably would not even carry his own home state in the general election against Clinton or Obama.

Veep choice grade: "D."

2.Gov. Sonny Perdue of Georgia: A social and religious conservative from the Bible Belt who could help McCain shore up his support with the base and keep the South in the Republican column (by the way, if Obama is the Democratic nominee, several southern states could be "up for grabs" in November: all it would take is a massive turnout among southern African-Americans for Obama, coupled with a poor turnout among southern white Evangelicals).

But Perdue has been criticized for pushing a lacklustre legislative agenda without any major economic achievements or "signature" issues. His "Go-Fish" program to promote fishing tourism was widely ridiculed in 2007. He also was at the center of scandal in 2006 when Democrats accused him of ethically suspect land deals and legislation that he signed that resulted in saving him $100,000 in capital gains taxes.

This is precisely the kind of "baggage" that McCain cannot afford to carry on his ticket, especially in an election year in which many voters are fending off bankruptcy or losing their homes.

Veep choice grade: "D."

3.Fred Thompson: it is curious how Thompson has almost completely disappeared from public view since dropping out of the Republican race for President. Some people believe that he was never really a serious candidate at all, but just a "spoiler" who aimed to split the conservative Republican vote to help the candidacy of his good friend, John McCain.

If so, the strategy certainly worked in South Carolina, where Thompson denied Huckabee victory in a state that was crucial to the latter's campaign strategy. But it may also be the case that Thompson simply did not want to be president badly enough to make a 100% effort.

Thompson proved himself to be a good debater, but a lazy and ineffective campaigner. He would help McCain shore up support with the southern and conservative Republican base, but it is hard to see how he could help the campaign anywhere else, much less ignite anyone's enthusiasm for the ticket.

Besides, two old white men against either the first serious female candidate (Clinton) or first serious African-American candidate (Obama) sounds like a recipe for defeat.

Veep choice grade: "D+."

4.Condoleeza Rice: A recent editorial in USA today claims that by choosing Rice, McCain's campaign suddenly would be seen by the electorate as every bit as historic as Clinton's and Obama's.

She would challenge the Democrats' "identity politics" advantage among both blacks and women voters at the same time! Rice is also bright, articulate, and has a spotless reputation.

On the other hand, she is entirely associated in the public mind with the Bush White House. That is a liability that the McCain campaign does not need in the general election (both Clinton and Obama are already claiming that a McCain presidency would be like a third-term for Bush; Rice's presence on the ticket would only confirm such suspicions).

Moreover, Rice would not bring any expertise or achievements in managing an economy to the Republican ticket, something that is badly needed to compensate for McCain's own weaknesses in this area.

Veep choice grade: "C."

5."Southern Strategy" options: Gov. Mark Sanford of South Carolina, or Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi. Both of these men are relatively popular southern governors and very much "full-spectrum" conservatives.

Sanford, age 47, is the more flamboyant of the two, having brought two live pigs into the state house to protest government "pork" spending by the Republican controlled legislature. He even describes himself as a "right-wing nut." Sanford is much more conservative than McCain on issues such as immigration, school choice, and taxation. That might turn off independent voters, and undermine McCain's appeal to Latinos. Also, it is not likely that he would be seen by the electorate as someone steady and ready to become "commander and chief" at a moment's notice.

Barbour, age 60, is more of a known quantity on the national scene, having been Republican Party Chairman not so long ago. He is also genial, intelligent, and articulate, and he won high praise for his handling of the Katrina hurricane crisis in his state.

However, Barbour also spent some years as a Washington lobbyist, and it is easy to predict that the Democrats would hammer McCain for hypocrisy if he put Barbour on the ticket, given McCain's attempt at muzzling of lobbyists in the McCain-Feingold legislation.

Much like Fred Thompson, both Sanford and Barbour would help McCain shore up his support with the party's southern, conservative base, but would do little else to help him beyond that.

Veep choice grades: Sanford "C+" and Barbour "B-."

6."Electoral College" strategy options: Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas, Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, and Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida. The thinking behind these options is that they would secure large states, such as Texas and/or Florida for the GOP in November. The trouble is that if McCain needs to worry about "securing" Texas for November, then his campaign is in a lot more trouble than any Veep choice can possibly fix.

For the Republicans, Texas ought to be a "gimmee" (as golfers say), or they do not have a prayer of winning the White House. Hutchinson is also greatly mistrusted by social conservatives, though she might help McCain among female voters.

Crist is only 51 years of age, and a phenomenally popular first term governor. But he has only been Governor of Florida for the better part of a year -- hardly the kind of resume that voters are looking for in someone who might become commander and chief, and head of the U.S. economy at a moment's notice.

Moreover, Crist is completely silver-haired: it may seem silly, but voters will likely perceive a McCain-Crist ticket to be a geriatric campaign. On the other hand, Florida is not a "gimmee" for the GOP, and Crist would indeed be likely to secure it: the fourth largest electoral prize in the country. McCain must have Texas, Florida, and Ohio to win.

Veep choice grades: Perry, "C," Hutchison, "B-," Crist, "B."

7.Mike Huckabee: from a humble family background, he became a popular and successful Governor of Arkansas for over a decade. Huckabee, aged 52, would bring matchless executive experience, and a former Baptist preacher's oratorical skills to the ticket.

He was labelled by the press as a mere southern "regional" candidate in the presidential primaries, but that was not entirely borne out by the facts: Huckabee won solid victories in Iowa and Kansas, and only lost Missouri and Oklahoma to McCain by thin margins. In other words, Huckabee was not a regional but a "Heartland" candidate, and that is precisely what McCain needs to rally the conservative Evangelical Republican base, both in the South and beyond.

Moreover, while Huckabee is a solid social conservative (Pro-Life and Pro-Traditional Family) nevertheless, both as Governor of Arkansas, and as a presidential candidate, he showed some flexibility on matters such as the environment, free-trade, taxation, and immigration, so that his reputation is more of a "populist" out to protect "the little guy," than a conservative idealogue.

This could be a real asset in an election year in which economic concerns top the list of voters' concerns. As a result, Huckabee might be able to pull off what most other Veep possibilities could not: rally the social conservative and southern white Republican base for the ticket, without scaring off too many independents and Latinos that McCain needs to win-over.

Another reason that Huckabee might be able to do this is the "likeability" factor: as Haley Barbour put it on FOX News recently: "The American people have come to like and respect Mike Huckabee.... He's warm, personable, and 'for real.'" In fact, alone among Republicans of national stature, Huckabee is a telegenic media favorite, who never lacks for invitations to television talk shows, and seems to enjoy playful verbal sparring with the main-stream media interviewers. He is also a better than average debater.

One further plus for Huckabee should not be overlooked: he already has a network of volunteers who passionately supported him in the primaries. In 2004, Evangelical voters turned out in massive numbers to support George W. Bush (he won 75% of born-again Christian Evangelical voters), and just as important, over 2 million Evangelicals volunteered their time and energy to help get out the vote on election day, so that Karl Rove actually credits them with Bush's victory.

McCain could never reduplicate that feat on his own; Huckabee may be the only Veep choice who can, and in an election year in which it looks as if the Democrats may have about twice as much money to spend on their campaign as the Republicans, grass-roots and volunteer support could be crucial to a GOP victory.

With all of these advantages, what could possibly be a "down-side" of having Huckabee on the ticket?

Two come to mind.

First, fiscal conservatives will sqwak that Huckabee is not really one of their own. Rush Limbaugh and Anne Coulter, Tony Blankley and George F. Will in particular will go ballistic (Blankley recently said that Huckabee would be a "terrible" choice).

The Supply-siders want one of their own on the ticket to influence McCain and become the heir-to-the-throne. While Huckabee would delight the social conservatives, the Supply-side true-believers would be utterly dismayed (although this may actually be a wash in the end: far-right economics is exceptionally unpopular at the moment across the nation, and to have his running mate trashed by conservative talk-radio and the beltway conservatives for not being one of their own could as much help McCain with independents as hurt him with a segment of the GOP base).

Perhaps more worrying were the erratic and inconsistent comments on foreign policy that Huckabee made during the primaries. This convinced some voters that Huckabee was not really ready to be President yet, and if that perception were to linger, it could damage the chances of the GOP ticket.

Again, voters will want reassurance that whomever 71 year-old John McCain chooses as his running mate will also be ready and able to lead the country if McCain's health should fail.

Veep choice grade: "A-."

8.Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota: Pawlenty, aged 47, has been one of McCain's most loyal supporters from the beginning. He would be broadly acceptable to the conservative wing of the party, especially to social conservatives, but he also shares a few of McCain's maverick positions, such as concern about global warming.

Like Huckabee, Pawlenty breaks the stereotype of the wealthy Republican elite: he is the son of a milk-truck driver, and the first one in his family to graduate from College. While Huckabee plays the base guitar for fun, Pawlenty revels in playing ice hockey: a favorite northern, blue-collar sport.

As a popular second-term Governor from a traditionally "Blue state", Pawlenty has been an effective and pragmatic steward of Minnesota's economy. His youthful, blue-collar appeal could put into play several mid-western swing-states that McCain might not otherwise have any realistic chance to win, including Minnesota itself, and Wisconsin, and Pawlenty would certainly help the ticket in largely blue-collar Ohio, a must-win but far-from-secure state for McCain.

Pawlenty is known in Minnesota as an intelligent, charming and congenial political figure --liable to be a hit with the media as soon as they get to know him. In fact, it is hard to find any "down-side" to Pawlenty as McCain's Veep choice except fear of the unknown: Pawlenty is completely untested on the national political scene.

Whether he could really rally the conservative Republican base, shine in debates, and convince the public that he could be trusted to take over the Oval Office if McCain's health should falter is anybody's guess. But an educated guess would suggest that he could.

Besides, the mere fact that Pawlenty would be a "squeaky-clean" fresh face on the national scene could be enough to create some fresh interest in, and possibly even enthusiasm for, the Republican cause. McCain will certainly need something new that throws out everyone's calculations, especially if he is running against Obama in the Fall.

Veep choice mark: "A."

Here is some final advice for Senator McCain (just in case any of his staff actually read this editorial!): if Hillary is going to be the nominee, choose Huckabee for Veep.

As in 2004, the Evangelical and "values voters" will turn out and volunteer in droves, this time to stop Hillary and support Huck.

If "Obama-mania" takes over the Democratic Party and the nomination, then choose Pawlenty: he would be a fresh and youthful candidate that could steal some of the glamour and limelight from fresh and youthful Obama, and make the independents think twice before jumping on the Obama bandwagon.

---

'Help Give every Student and Teacher FREE resources for a world-class Moral Catholic Education'

Copyright 2021 - Distributed by Catholic Online