Guest Commentary: A Vote For Huckabee is A Vote For McCain?

"There is still an opening here for Huckabee, if Pro-Life and Pro-Family Republicans will wake up and rally around the only candidate who has fully and consistently been on their side from the beginning." Professor Robert Stackpole

LOS ANGELES (Catholic Online) - Every commentator in the mainstream media is saying it:

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"Huckabee has no chance to win, so his continued presence in the race only draws votes away from the other 'conservative' candidate, Mitt Romney. Huckabee is only hurting Romney by staying in, splitting the conservative vote. A vote for Huckabee, therefore, in effect, is a vote for McCain."

Once again, the political pundits in the mainstream media have got it almost completely wrong.

First of all, their analysis assumes that the "second choice" for President of most Huckabee supporters is Romney. But that is manifestly false.

If Huckabee withdrew from the race tomorrow, he would almost certainly endorse McCain, whom he greatly admires, and some of Huckabee's supporters would surely follow his advice.

Also, many of Huckabee's hard core backers are conservative Evangelicals who regard Mormonism as a "cult," and they would not vote for Romney under any circumstances.

Many other Huckabee supporters are economic "populists" who see Romney as the standard bearer for Wall Street conservativism, with precious little understanding or concern for "the little guy." Romney won't get their votes either.

In other words, if Huckabee withdraws now, his supporters will split between McCain, Romney, and "none of the above."

Second, the mainstream media fails to realize that Mitt Romney does not need Mike Huckabee or anyone else to hurt his candidacy: he has proven himself perfectly capable of doing so himself.

Here is a candidate who has spent tens of millions of dollars on just a handful of states so far, and the net result is that he has only been able to win one contested primary (Michigan -where his father was a three-term governor). Romney's problem is not Mike Huckabee. His problem is that he evidently has major difficulties "connecting" with the voters.

The reason for this is not hard to see: the voters know that Mitt Romney dramatically re-invented himself for this presidential campaign. Almost to the end of his tenure as Governor of ultra-liberal Massachusetts, Romney was an economic conservative, but also a vocal social liberal.

He was adamantly pro-abortion ("You will not see me waver on that," he promised) right up until a few months after he began exploring a run for the presidency. In 2006 Romney told the Massachusetts press that McCain's views on immigration were "reasonable," and that the Senator's call for a pathway to citizenship for undocumented workers was "not amnesty."

During this campaign, however, Romney has not ceased to blast McCain's alleged "amnesty" bill, and he became so hard-line on the issue that it led to a back-lash against him among Cuban American voters in the Florida primary.

Citing also the issues of gun control and gay rights, Steve Kornacki of the New York Observer summed it up: "On literally every subject in which he was vulnerable to criticism from conservatives, Romney shifted his attitudes before entering the campaign."

Even on Iraq, while John McCain has certainly exaggerated Romney's "flip" on this issue, there can be no doubt that Romney at least "hedged his bets" regarding the Iraq "surge" policy.

Notice that almost every commentator in the media who discusses Romney's famous statement of April, 2007 on ABC News, does so out of context of the straight question that Romney was asked by the interviewer.

Robin Roberts clearly asked him: "Do you believe there should be a timetable in withdrawing troops?" Romney did not say, or even imply "no." Rather, Romney replied:

"Well, there's no question that the President and Prime Minister al-Maliki have to have a set of timetables and milestones that they speak about. But those shouldn't be for public pronouncement. You don't want the enemy to understand how long they have to wait in the weeds until you are going to be gone...."

Later, Roberts pressed him further: "So, private. You wouldn't do it publicly. Because the President has said flat out that he will veto anything the Congress passes about a timetable for troop withdrawals. As President, would you do the same?"

Romney replied:

"Well, of course. Can you imagine a setting where during the Second World War we said to the Germans, gee, if we haven't reached the Rhine by this date, why, we'll go home, or if we haven't gotten this accomplished we'll pull up and leave. You don't publish that to your enemy, or they just simply lie in wait until that time..."

After surveying all the evidence of Romney's ambiguous statements on Iraq from December 2006-April 2007, Stephen F. Hayes of The Daily Standard (and not a McCain supporter) came to the following "inescapable conclusion":

"Mitt Romney was concerned about the political implications of embracing a surge that could fail. So he avoided the question."

Candidates like this do not inspire the confidence of "conservatives"-- or anyone else for that matter. Add to that the fact that Romney has pandered to the voters in several primary states, sometimes in direct contradiction of his "conservative" principles.

For example, just a few days before the Michigan primary, Romney rolled out a $20 billion energy research and auto industry bailout package to court the voters of the economically depressed Motor State.

In the run-up to the primary in Florida, a state with a large population of retirees, Romney announced a new tax policy: the permanent elimination of payroll taxes on Seniors. This is not "Reagan Conservativism"--this is "Politics As Usual."

In short, Huckabee is not hurting Romney. Romney is continually hurting himself.

Finally, the mainstream media is convinced that Huckabee has no chance to win the Republican nomination. Certainly, a Huckabee victory is now a long-shot. But do not count him out just yet. A very high percentage of Republican voters are still 'undecided" (around 20%).

Even among so-called "decided" voters, many are not entirely happy with either Romney (Mr. Flip-flop) or McCain (too "liberal" on some issues).

There is still an opening here for Huckabee, if Pro-Life and Pro-Family Republicans will wake up and rally around the only candidate who has fully and consistently been on their side from the beginning.

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