Scientists racing against time to roll out early warning system as massive quake looms over California

Multiple quakes over 24 hours reminds state's residents that quake is coming.

California officials and private developers are racing to deploy early warning alerts to California residents. Their efforts come as the state was rattled by three notable quakes within 24 hours. A privately developed early warning system worked as designed during yesterday's Berkeley quake along the Hayward fault. 

LOS ANGELES, CA (California Network) - Residents of the college town of Berkeley, just north of Oakland, Ca, were rudely awakened by a 4.4 quake on Thursday morning. Near the epicenter, some items were knocked off shelves, but there was no significant damage. A 4.4 is a minor quake, although noticeable. 

At the same time shaking started, four people beta testing a privately developed application called QuakeAlert, received an early warning. Two seconds, five seconds and 27 seconds, all according to their distance from the epicenter. The app worked perfectly. 

The app, which is not yet available to the public, is an alternative to the state's ShakeAlert system, which is also undergoing beta testing. ShakeAlert is the official system under development by the state and is due to be rolled out to the public in phases, beginning this year. 

It can't come soon enough. In addition to the quake in Berkeley, smaller quakes rattled the seaside community of Cambria in central California and San Diego in the south. Both quakes struck offshore and were not widely felt, but they made for sensational news. Small quakes can increase the likelihood of a larger quake in the short term, measured in days. 

California is bisected by the San Andreas fault, which is a crack deep below the surface where the Pacific Plate and the North American place rub against one another. While both plates are moving in the same direction (roughly north) the Pacific plate is moving faster, which causes strain. Periodically the ground ruptures and moves several inches to feet at once, and a major quake happens. 

The San Andreas fault has produced two massive quakes in the state's recent, recorded history, and much more before records were kept. In 1857, a 7.9 quake struck central and southern California. The state was sparsely populated so there were only two fatalities. Fifty-one years later, in 1906, the fault produced the San Francisco quake which killed over 3,000 people initially, with another four thousand killed in fires and aftershocks. The quake is the state's most deadly natural disaster to date. 

To date.

Simulations predict that a similar quake near the location for the 1857 Tejon quake, could produce at least a similar number of casualties in Bakersfield and Los Angeles, the two large cities closest to the fault. Hundreds of smaller communities between the two cities would be devastated. Roads, water lines, power, and other infrastructure would be wiped out as the fault displaced by several feet. It would take months to repair the damage, and that's the best-case scenario. 

At least with an early warning system, residents will have warning to take cover. Early warning systems are linked to the state's system of seismographs and send out an alert in real time, as soon as shaking starts. This can give people valuable warning time. Trains can be stopped and people on the freeways can slow down and stop. People in structures can go for cover. Even a few seconds warning is enough to save lives. 

Such systems are already in place in Japan and Mexico. However, officials in California have struggled with funding, and only now in 2018 will the state's public system be launched. It will not be widely available at first, so most people will either have to wait or hope that a private system, like QuakeAlert is ready before then. For now, QuakeAlert only works for the iPhone and isn't ready for the public, but an Android version is forthcoming. 

Californios are weary of living under the specter of disaster without the benefit of a warning system. Japan, Taiwan, and Mexico have all had systems in place since 2016, yet California, a hotbed of technological innovation, home to Google, Facebook and Apple, is still waiting. Politics is to be blamed in the state that has the fifth largest economy in the world. 

In the meantime, 2018 has barely started and the shaking has begun. Deep beneath the feet of millions of people, a sleeping giant stirs. Every time the earth quivers, just a little, nervous people wonder "is this it?" Someday soon, the answer will be painful and obvious. Let's hope when it happens, those millions have a fair warning and a sporting chance to survive.