World population could hit 11 billion by 2100 new study reveals

A United Nations-led analysis published on September 18 has revealed that the world's population may reach 11 billion by 2100, which would mean two billion more people than previously expected, largely due to high birth rates in Africa.

LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - "The consensus over the past 20 years or so was that world population, which is currently around seven billion, would go up to nine billion and level off or probably decline," said one of the study's co-authors, Adrian Raftery, a professor of statistics and sociology at the University of Washington.

The last email you'll ever need!

"We found there's a 70 percent probability the world population will not stabilize this century," he added.

This study uses the most current U.N. population data, which was released back in July, and employs Bayesian statistics to combine all available information to generate batter predictions.

Previously, estimates relied on expert opinions on life expectancy and fertility rates, and how much or if they would change over time.

"Earlier projections were strictly based on scenarios, so there was no uncertainty," said UN demographer Patrick Gerland.

"This work provides a more statistically driven assessment that allows us to quantify the predictions, and offer a confidence interval that could be useful in planning."

Africa is anticipated to have the largest growth, where the population is expected to rise from one billion to four billion.

"There is an 80 percent chance that the population in Africa at the end of the century will be between 3.5 and 5.1 billion people," said the study.

Africa is expected to boom, but many other populations are expected to peak or shrink.

Right now Asia has a population of 4.4 billion, but will probably peak at 5 billion in 2050 and decline from there. North America, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean are all expected to remain under one billion each.

---

'Help Give every Student and Teacher FREE resources for a world-class Moral Catholic Education'