Israeli war with Iran may be more costly than believed

Israel is preparing for war with Iran as the government tells the people that the country has little to worry from Iranian retaliation. Unfortunately, that promise is based on untested hopes and may be quite unrealistic as Iran's missile capability grows. 

JERUSALEM, ISRAEL (Catholic Online) - The population at large seems largely indifferent to the threat of war with Iran. Few people are expressing any significant anxiety, perhaps because the reality of war seems distant. But the government is reassuring people of their safety in the event of conflict and this may not be true. 

A false blanket of security certainly exists as attacks from Islamic militants are been blunted by deployment of the Iron Dome system, a missile system that can shoot down terrorist rockets with 80 to 90 percent reliability. 

But Iran may be a different matter. While rockets fired from Gaza are low-tech and inaccurate, ballistic missiles launched from Iran have greater power and capability.  Iron Dome outright ignores a significant number of Gaza-fired rockets, and (by choice) does not shoot at rockets expected to land in unpopulated areas. 

Iran is believed to have nearly 500 missiles that are capable of reaching targets in Israel. Many are new designs, or have been upgraded to provide significant accuracy. Such missiles could be used to target very specific targets. 

Even if one missile gets through, it can shut down an airbase, a power plant, or a government ministry. A coordinated barrage of missiles, even with limited success, can wreak untold havoc on Israel's ability to wage war. 

Preemptory strikes on Iranian missiles won't likely have much success either. Most Iranian missiles are mounted on large trucks that can relocate, hide, and launch on a moment's notice. 

Israel's war fighting capability is substantial. Not only can the state deliver a powerful first strike, it can defend itself against robust attacks. However, Iran has the capability to overwhelm the formidable defenses, even if the cost is high and the success rate is low. Iran needs only a few hits on Israeli infrastructure to claim payback. 

Add the unconventional capabilities that Iran has, (terrorists, suicide bombers) and the public has a very real threat confronting them. 

In any case, the best option for Israel and Iran remains a peaceful, negotiated solution to the growing nuclear crisis. However, given the rhetoric and the "devil may care" attitude of the leaders in both countries, that is a long shot -perhaps even longer than war. 

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