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World War III is all but inevitable as North Korea and the U.S. prep for war. China moves 150,000 troops to prepare for refugees
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We are waiting for Friday to dawn in North Korea to know what will happen next, but the prognosis is for war. President Trump and Kim Jong Un have both issued statements that show they are on a collision course and from prior precedent, it seems neither leader is prepared to back down. For both, the stakes are too high to stop. China is actively preparing for conflict.
North Korean soldiers armed with backpack bombs are allegedly trained to infiltrate enemy territory and to detonate a nuclear device strapped to their body. North Korea does not have the technology to miniaturize a nuclear device --yet.
Highlights
CALIFORNIA NETWORK (https://www.youtube.com/c/californianetwork)
4/11/2017 (7 years ago)
Published in Asia Pacific
Keywords: North Korea, United States, war, test, Day of the Sun, Donald Trump, Kim Jong Un, World War III, nuclear, Carl Vinson
LOS ANGELES, CA (California Network) -- The United States and North Korea are on the brink of war with neither side showing any sign of backing down. China has sent 150,000 troops to the North Korean border, ostensibly to deal with an anticipated flood of refugees. Leaders in South Korea are attempting to downplay the situation.
The cause behind the crisis is the "Day of the Sun" holiday in North Korea. Celebrated on April 15, the birthday of the founder of North Korea, Kim Il-Sung, it is the most important holiday in the Juche state. The holiday is commemorated with lavish public celebrations, and military demonstrations. Demonstrations commonly include the testing of new weapons.
According to intelligence officials, North Korea appears to be in the final stages of preparing for an underground nuclear test, the perfect cap to their Day of the Sun celebrations. Missiles may also be launched as part of the celebration. North Korea says they are close to finishing a missile with the capability of reaching the west coast of the United States.
Kim Jong Un believes a nuclear weapon is the only way to protect his nation from the United States.
However, the U.S. is not prepared to accept a nuclear-capable North Korea, nor are its allies. North Korea can deliver a nuclear weapon in the form of a bomb, but that requires delivery by aircraft or a modified medium-range missile. Both of those systems can be intercepted by allied assets stationed in South Korea and Japan.
An intercontinental ballistic missile however, is much more difficult to intercept. The U.S. has interceptor batteries in Alaska and California, but the capability of these systems is unknown and both are thought to still be in development.
Kim Jong Un has invited the press to witness the Day of the Sun celebrations and to report on their military tests, which are intended to send a message to the world. Given that his audience is already assembled, he would lose face if he backed off from the planned tests. It could also cause internal problems within his own regime as key figures may lose confidence in him.
While Kim Jong Un will probably consult with his advisors, the totalitarian, fear-based nature of his regime will prompt his advisors to suggest a defiant course, lest their commitment be questioned. The result is, no amount of diplomatic or common sense persuasion will compel North Korea to back off its planned demonstrations.
Across the Pacific, President Trump will be faced with a decision on Thursday. How will he respond if Kim Jong Un detonates a nuke, or fires a long-range missile?
The USS Carl Vinson, and its attendant battle group is arriving in the waters off the Korean peninsula. The fleet was scheduled to visit Australia, and had been in the region just a few weeks prior. Its sudden diversion to North Korea is highly unusual.
The diversion of the fleet follows President Trump's strike on Syria which is now understood to be a waning message to North Korea, and a demonstration of resolve for China.
China certainly believes something is likely to happen. They have moved 150,000 troops to the North Korean border to establish field hospitals and refugee camps. No nation, not even China, moves that many troops without good cause.
Finally, both North Korea and the U.S. have issued statements warning the other of imminent military action.
It is apparent that something is about to happen. The only question is how far will it escalate.
North Korea will not fare very well against the U.S. Navy or American air assets. Within hours to days of an open conflict, the United States will rule the seas and the skies. On land however, North Korea has an advantage in troops and preparation. But that advantage will be swiftly degraded as allied air power interdicts lines of communication and chips away at the North's outmoded military. Superior technology in the hands of American and South Korean forces will also allow the allies to dominate the North's army within a matter of days.
What happens after that will depend on how other actors respond. Congress will demand President Trump asks for permission to go to war. China will have to decide if they want to occupy the North. Russia will have to choose a side, or they could remain neutral. Inside the regime of Kim Jong Un, key figures will have to decide what risks they want to take.
All this could happen quickly, meaning within just a few weeks' time, the world is likely to be a very different place.
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