Is Trump about to attack North Korea?

Will Trump attack North Korea?

Observers are concerned that the United States and her allies are about to strike North Korea while using annual exercises as cover. The U.S. has reached out to China to enlist their support while an aircraft carrier battlegroup has arrived in the region.

LOS ANGELES, CA (California Network) -- The U.S. is building up forces in South Korea provoking concern that a war could erupt. The buildup is for the annual "Foal Eagle" and "Key Resolve" exercises in which Allied forces rehearse a possible conflict with North Korea.

Despite the annual nature of the exercises, something feels different about these. They come shortly after North Korea tested several advanced missile designs and threatened the west with "nuclear war" should its "dignity" be impugned.

An unnamed military official has also leaked to the media that, "A bigger number of and more diverse U.S. special operation forces will take part in this year's Foal Eagle and Key Resolve exercises to practice missions to infiltrate into the North, remove the North's war command and demolition of its key military facilities."

The U.S. has sent the carrier USS Carl Vinson and its attendant battle group which includes missile cruisers, and most likely at least one attack submarine. Onboard the carrier are more than 80 advanced and upgraded aircraft such as the F/A-18F Super Hornet which can perform air-to-air combat as well as ground attack duties.

The U.S. can also sortie bombers from bases across the Pacific and in the United States.

By comparison, the North Korean air forces are virtually nonexistent. Their most advanced aircraft is the 80s vintage MiG 29, which would be maneuverable in a close-range fight, but it is unlikely Allied pilots would allow the plane to come close, or take off to begin with.

With dominance of the skies, North Korea's forces would be systematically destroyed by a merciless air campaign in which attack aircraft from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea would destroy vital equipment, cut supplies, and eventually bomb concentrations of troops. North Korea's advantage in numbers would soon become a liability as they lose the ability to feed or refuel their armies.

This leaves nuclear weapons as North Korea's only viable deterrent. With accurate intelligence and preemptive strikes, this capability could be neutralized. Interceptor missiles have been deployed to the region with the capability of shooting down the North's ballistic missiles, should they launch.

China, as North Korea's traditional protector, provides the final deterrent to Allied military power in the region. However, China is a firmly established trading partner with the United States, and conflict with America is highly undesirable. China also wants to consolidate power in the South China Sea, and to affirm its traditional, though unexercised claim on Taiwan. The U.S. has the power to trade concessions with China in exchange for their support against North Korea. And China has little affection for North Korea, which is views as an unruly step-brother.

There is a diplomatic blitz underway already. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is touring the region, and the U.S. has reached out to China for cooperation in managing North Korea.

Is conflict looming? Despite tensions, the exercises are probably just exercises, and not cover for a sneak attack. Every year, the U.S. flies bombers from American bases across the Korean peninsula, and nearly half-a-million allied forces, mostly South Korean, conduct drills to prepare against an invasion from the North. In response, North Korea launches missiles and rockets, or fires shells across the border.

Both sides tend to find a way to back down without losing face and the cold war between North and South continues.

However, neither Kim Jong UN or President Trump want to appear weak. President Trump has built a public reputation as a fighter. A single mistake could result in a cascade of chaos which leads to conflict, and with neither side willing to back down, the Second Korean War could turn into a swift, brutal affair with massive casualties on both sides.

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