What happens if the Affordable Care Act is repealed?

The demise of Obamacare is creating uncertainty for millions of Americans.

With the Republicans voting to repeal Obamacare many people are wondering what will happen. Here is what we we've learned is possible.

LOS ANGELES, CA (California Network) -- The Republicans have pledged to repeal Obamacare, also known as the Affordable Care Act. It remains a mystery what will happen following the repeal. We have attempted to gather some facts to suggest what people can expect if Obamacare is repealed.

What is Obamacare?

Obamacare is the popular name for the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The law has been hotly debated and remains controversial. The aim of the law was to make healthcare costs predictable and to extend health insurance to all Americans especially the poor. The law was successful in extending insurance to tens of millions of Americans who were previously uninsured. The law contains popular provisions that allow children to remain on their parent's insurance until age 26, prevent insurance companies from denying coverage to people with preexisting conditions, and prevents companies from dropping sick people out of coverage.

However, many middle-class Americans have seen their premiums skyrocket under the law. Others have seen tax increases. Individuals who refuse to buy insurance face a punitive tax. Religious employers have clashed with the government over the law's requirement that they provide contraceptive coverage.

Republicans have long maligned the law as a form of socialism and government control. Democrats have claimed the law is required to protect people from predatory pricing schemes that bankrupt people while enriching Wall Street investors. People are profiting from the illness of others while doing nothing to make them well again.

Here's what we've figured out so far about a possible repeal.

1.    Repeal is virtually certain

President-elect Trump has pledged to repeal Obamacare. He has also said he has a replacement plan that will be announced at the same time his Health and Human Services pick, Tom Price (R-GA) is confirmed. Republicans have already voted to repeal the law, and a bill to do so could be on Trump's desk immediately following the inauguration.

2.    It's unlikely anything will change immediately

Immediate change is unlikely because nobody knows what will replace Obamacare. And if a replacement plan is adopted, the industry will require a lot of lead time to prepare to adapt to the new law. Instant change is highly unlikely. The first changes would likely come in January 2018. Presently, Republicans seem willing to allow two years to pass without major changes.

3.    The most likely immediate change would be the repeal of the tax

Currently, people who choose to go without insurance coverage are punished with a tax equal to a flat dollar amount, or a percentage of their income, depending on their circumstances. This tax could be repealed immediately with little overall impact to the system. It would provide relief for many people who are not buying insurance and could otherwise face a steep tax bill. However, there is no plan to repeal this tax right away.

4.    Government subsidies are likely to end

Under Obamacare, individuals are given subsidies to pay for their insurance. The poorer a person is, the larger their subsidy. This allows poor people to afford more expensive plans with better coverage, which some people need. Without these subsidies, the poor may not be able to afford coverage at all.

5.    Millions of people could lose all coverage

If President Trump approves a plan that strips away subsidies and little more, millions of Americans would lose insurance. Uninsured, they will once again rely on emergency rooms for their primary care. This will drive up the costs of emergency room visits for all people.

6.    A replacement plan could allow you to save money, pre-tax

A replacement plan is likely to include health savings accounts, which allow people to save money, probably in tax-free accounts. People can use these accounts to save money for future medical expenses. They may work well for routine visits and care, but are unlikely to provide enough for surgery or a hospital stay.

7.    Whatever happens, single-payer coverage is on its way

 Single-payer coverage is where everybody pays higher taxes and in exchange, everybody enjoys free or low cost access to care at any time, However, it can also lead to shortages of doctors meaning that some people may wait much longer for a visit.

This is the form of healthcare that all western, industrialized countries use, the United States being the only exception. Such a system removes the profit motive from healthcare because it is government run. This is an important change because at present, insurance companies and Wall Street investors are responsible for a significant portion of healthcare costs. These people collect profits from the healthcare industry without providing any long-term value. Eliminating them would immediately lower the cost of healthcare, so it makes for a logical first step.

While Republicans may adopt a neo-liberal approach to healthcare, it won't last. Millennial voters are overwhelmingly socialist in their attitudes and they will make the majority of voters in the 2020 elections. It is unlikely Trump will be reelected for a second term, unless his rivals repeat old mistakes.

A new, progressive, administration will probably aim for a single-payer system, for better or worse.

What should a person do to prepare?

The best change is to adopt healthier habits. By staying healthy, particularly though the diet and exercise, a person will have less need for healthcare.

Save money. Saving money in a savings account will help cover occasional doctor's visits and defray the cost of prescriptions. Saving money is always a good practice under any healthcare system. Even if healthcare were free, the savings could be used to purchase discretionary items or even on a vacation, which can decrease stress and improve health.

Learn to relax. Relaxation is a great way to reduce stress and prevent high blood pressure as well as nervous eating and other poor habits that develop. There is a lot of political machinery at work, shaping the laws of our land, especially our healthcare. All things without remedy should be without regard. By planning and preparing, you can ensure you have done all you can to weather any storms that come. Beyond that, there is nothing more to do. Worrying only makes problems worse.

When can we expect to know what's happening?

President Trump has set this has one of his highest priorities. We can expect to know more within days following his inauguration on Jan. 20. Most experts would be surprised if we did not have a sneak peek, or a full announcement before the end of January.

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