Scientists knew California would be flooded this year, but how did they predict it?

In this case, the prediction was off by mere months.

In December of 2015, Catholic Online reported that an atmospheric river event known as an ARk storm could cause catastrophic flooding in California and that such an event was likely to occur soon. It appears this prediction came true. California is experiencing its wettest year on record as an atmospheric river slams into the state.

LOS ANGELES, CA (California Network) -- There is a river in the sky over California known as the "Pineapple Express." This year, the phenomenon has been unusually persistent over California and the Pacific Northwest, resulting in the wettest year on record for the normally dry state. Even sunny southern California has remained wet this season.

Meteorologists refer to these events as ARk storms (yes, the AR is capitalized, the k is not) which is short for 'atmospheric river.' These rivers in the sky can convey between ten to sixteen times the volume of the Mississippi river from the sea around Hawaii to the foothills of California.

What's different about these storms is they are sustained events. Californians are accustomed to passing showers. It's rare for rain to last more than a few hours, particularly in central and southern California. Rain is usually a light drizzle at worst, and flooding is rare. But ARk storms are like firehoses, dropping several inches of rain in short periods of time. Flash floods occur, and Californians who are unaccustomed to such dangers can find themselves at risk.

In December of 2015, Catholic Online published a story that announced FEMA officials feared an ARk flood in the state was a likely possibility that they have prepared for such an event. Needless to say, those preparations were timely.

But how did officials know such an event, which has only happened a couple times in the state's recorded history, was about to occur?

In 2015, as Californians literally ripped out dead grass for astroturf, scientists were watching something called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO. The PDO is a cycle of warming and cooling that happens in the Pacific over years or even decades. The pattern showed every sign of returning to warmth, and has now done so. The warmer Pacific trend means wetter winters in California.

Scientists believed ARk floods were possibly as early as last year when a monster El Nino, that is warmer than average Pacific waters, ruled the sea, causing more evaporation and more rain than normal in California. Instead, they were off, but only by a matter of months.

Such flooding events are naturally catastrophic for the state which is more prepared for earthquakes than rain. One broken levee, or dam and the state will have a disaster worse than the 'big one' earthquake most Californians fear.

Thanks to a long drought that emptied reservoirs, California's flood control systems have worked rather well. Danger remains. The storms have not yet abated. Generally, rain begins to abate by late February and tapers off entirely by mid-April. Levees and dams, like the Oroville dam, need constant maintenance. But officials expect everything to hold.

Yet, another wet winter could be even worse. Once reservoirs are full, water will have to run into the state's rivers and out to sea. This could result in widespread flooding. Nobody expects this to happen, but it is possible with enough moisture.

Californians are enjoying the rain for now. They're saving what they can in reservoirs. The long hot summer is close behind, but for once the state will have an ample supply of water. Let's just hope that ample doesn't become too much.

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