Matthew becomes Category 5 monster, turns towards US

Storm will hit on Thursday.

Hurricane Matthew has become a monster category 5 storm, swirling in the Caribbean, headed for the eastern tip of Cuba. Haiti has been hit, but the full extent of damage is unknown. Some communities in South Carolina have been ordered to evacuate.

LOS ANGELES, CA (California Network) - Hurricane Matthew has become a category 5 hurricane with sustained winds exceeding 145 MPH as of 2 p.m. EDT. There is a death toll, but only one death has been officially reported in St. Vincent, a man was killed when a boulder fell on him.

The storm is about to hit Cuba where over one million people have been evacuated. The families of American service personnel in Guantanamo Bay have been evacuated.

The Bahamas will be hit, although it remains to be seen precisely which locations. Most of the islands will see very high winds. Matthew is expected to turn north, northwest in the coming hours and northwest tomorrow.

UPDATE: as of 5 p.m. EDT, Matthew has weakened to category 4 and will likely remain as such. The storm is now forecast to shift farther WEST, threatening more of Florida and the U.S. east coast in general.

A state of emergency has been declared in Florida. South Carolina has ordered the evacuation of several coastal islands.

If the storm follows its presently predicted track, it will brush the coast of Florida on Thursday, then spend the next four days working along the U.S. coast. The storm will weaken as if progresses north, but it will also drop large quantities of rain and cause flooding.

Matthew is the first category 5 Atlantic storm since Felix in 2007.

We will continue to cover this story as it develops.

000 WTNT44 KNHC 042059 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 The eye of Hurricane Matthew is not as distinct as it was earlier today, and the change in the overall pattern suggests that the cyclone is a little weaker due to the interaction with the nearby high terrain. The initial intensity has been lowered to 120 kt and some slight additional weakening could occur tonight while Matthew's circulation continues to interact with Cuba and Hispaniola. Once Matthew moves into the Bahamas, the environment is favorable for the hurricane to maintain category 4 status for the next 2 days. Some weakening is anticipated beyond 3 days due to an increase of the wind shear. Earlier reconnaissance aircraft fixes, satellite and radar data from Cuba indicate that Matthew is moving toward the north or 360 degrees at about 8 kt. The hurricane continues to be steered by the flow around the western edge of a subtropical ridge. Most of the global models build the ridge westward, and this pattern should force the hurricane to turn toward the northwest across the Bahamas and to the waters just east of Florida. The most interesting change this afternoon is that the ECMWF has forecast a stronger western Atlantic ridge than in previous runs. This evolution resulted in an additional leftward shift of the ECMWF track and consequently, the NHC forecast has also been adjusted to the left, necessitating the southward extension of the hurricane watch in Florida. Beyond 3 days, the ridge is forecast to move eastward, allowing Matthew to turn northward and then northeastward. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries. 2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United States to clarify. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Florida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.8N 74.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 21.1N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 22.5N 75.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 24.0N 76.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 25.9N 78.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 29.5N 80.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 33.5N 78.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 40.0N 71.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

000 WTNT24 KNHC 042053 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 2100 UTC TUE OCT 04 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO GOLDEN BEACH... FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI * CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN... GRANMA...AND LAS TUNAS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA... ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...AND RAGGED ISLAND * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...EXUMA...RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR...AND CAT ISLAND * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY * GOLDEN BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 74.3W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 150SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 180SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 74.3W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 74.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 74.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 75.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.0N 76.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.9N 78.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.5N 80.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 33.5N 78.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 40.0N 71.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 74.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA 



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