Where are the wildfires? Global warming theory says California should be in flames...

The Washington Times recently reported that a mild fire season in the Western US is disrupting the global warming narrative --a sort of inconvenient truth for climate change proponents. The article is certainly correct, the fire season is well below average, so far, but reason is very simple and the truth far more disturbing.

LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - Typically by this time of the year, the Southwestern United States is dotted with wildfires which are typical from mid-summer through the fall. The American Southwest is dry country, although the Mojave Desert enjoys a monsoon season that quenches the desert through July and August.

The Los Angeles area, including the San Fernando Valley and the San Joaquin Valley to the north, are naturally dry grasslands during this time of year. The forests of the Sierras are also blanketed with dry brush and undergrowth, turning much of the state of California into a tinder-box which invariably flares up in late summer or early fall. This is natural and normal for the region.

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State authorities warn that California faces an exceptional fire hazard after three years of record drought, yet the wildfires have not arrived as expected. A few, such as the Washington Times, may assume this fact contradicts the global warming narrative that claims an increase in wildfires as a consequence of rising global temperatures. In this case, the climate change proponents are wrong because as usual, there are features in the models that are not taken into account. This is one such case.

The truth of the easy fire season in California is much more alarming that the Washington Times suggests.

Although a few are caused by human activity, most are caused by storms which pass over central California during this season. So why are there so few fires?

It's because there have been no storms to start them.

California is in the midst of an unprecedented drought. The situation is so serious that entire communities have run out of water. Crops have ripened early. Pistachios two months early, grapes a month early. Fields lay fallow as farmers save their water, then sell it instead of growing food with it.

Californians have been hoping for an El Nino and the rains it typically brings to relieve the drought this winter, but this prediction seems to be in vain as conditions favorable to the El Nino have degraded.

Rather than evidence against climate change, the anomaly is evidence for it.

California's drought has now lasted for three years with a ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Ocean deflecting storms north of the state. Washington and Oregon are getting the storms --and the wildfires, while California bakes and runs dry.

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Drive through the central valley and you will see brown as far as the eye can see. That color is not just on the ground, but also in the air. Haze obscures sight and air quality is so poor that many Californians live with chronic repository illnesses as a matter of course.

Climate change predictions don't meet their targets because the models they use are incomplete. The Earth's weather system is so dynamic and has so many variables that no model yet accounts for all of the factors that influence climate. There are certainly factors which are poorly understood and possibly undiscovered which contribute to climate outcomes. However, the models are correct in a general sense. The trends point universally upwards and despite a "pause" in global warming, which has lasted for over a decade, the current pause is thought to be temporary and warming will certainly accelerate at some point.

The powers that be are also convinced that CO2-induced global warming is a significant threat. The U.S. Department of Defense has listed climate change as a factor for which they must account in predicting future threats and operations. Christine Lagarde of the International Monetary Fund has warned, "The science is sobering.our planet is in peril." Both the DoD and IMF have an interest in knowing the facts and what can be reliably predicted in the future. Neither agency is interested in advancing some meta-narrative, they are simply interested in assessing valid future threats. Climate change is among them.

The lack of wildfires in California is directly caused by an atmospheric anomaly known as the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge," (RRR) an area of high pressure over the Pacific that has lasted for three years, keeping the state in drought. The question is if that anomaly is a product of climate change or not.

Until now, there are no records of such a persistent ridge of high pressure in that region lasting for more than one winter season. Ever.

Presently, the feature is about to enter its fourth year of persistence. This is a climate anomaly and such anomalies are predicted by climate change theory. Even worse, the RRR has strengthened through 2014.

Another feature of this weather anomaly is exceptionally cold weather in the eastern U.S. One common critique of the global warming narrative is that the eastern portion of the country has suffered through some of the worst cold in recorded history. This is another peculiarity of global warming. Some spots will become exceptionally and unseasonably cold as classic weather patterns break down into a new normal.

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The Earth's climate is changing, and although it defies local predictions based on large models, the overall trend remains valid. The planet is receiving and storing heat in lock-step with human CO2 emissions. Humans are producing much more CO2 than the plants of the Earth can consume, leading to a steadily growing excess. That excess is now impacting our climate in ways we are only beginning to understand.

Change is the new normal.

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