Life on the sinking USS Chrysler

Detroit Free Press (MCT) - Is it ever too late for a rescue?

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As we all watch Chrysler LLC sinking right before our eyes _ with nearly 60,000 passengers on board _ I fear the answer might be yes.

Around Motor City, there's plenty of chatter that the 2009 Detroit auto show, starting Jan. 11, will probably even be the automaker's last.

A foregone conclusion has been hanging in the air that Detroit's No. 3 automaker is destined for some sort of destruction. That it will be merged with some other company, sold off in pieces to foreign automakers _ maybe the Chinese this time _ or decimated in a bankruptcy.

Over the holiday, Himanshu Patel, a veteran analyst with JP Morgan, speculated that "some sort of orderly down-stepping of Chrysler may be in the works."

Michael Robinet, vice president of global vehicle forecasting for CSM Worldwide Inc., said he couldn't see Chrysler as "a viable entity" long-term. "I don't think anybody thinks that," he said.

In its most recent autos report, Consumer Reports couldn't even find a single Chrysler, Dodge or Jeep vehicle to recommend in Chrysler's lineup of nearly 30 products. "Many of Chrysler's vehicles rank at the bottom," CR said. "Chrysler falls short."

Heck, even Cerberus Capital Management, which owns a majority stake in Chrysler, has offered to give its investment in the company to unions, debtholders and other stakeholders in exchange for concessions. According to some bean counters, Chrysler is essentially worthless anyway.

But none of that compares to what workers and former workers at Chrysler's headquarters in Auburn Hills, Mich., have told me about the eerie feelings of uncertainty that fill the sprawling complex. All the empty desks. A natural consequence, I guess, of losing one-fourth of your workers to buyouts, early retirements and doubts about the future.

Even the recent $4 billion loan from the federal government _ which Chrysler workers lobbied for in a heartfelt video _ hasn't really quashed the pervading sense of doom.

Chrysler had asked Congress for $7 billion, after all, and anyone familiar with the cash-intensive auto industry knows that $4 billion would probably pay the bills for only a month.

It's not nearly enough to save the company in this economic stubborn downturn.

Meanwhile, tens of thousands of workers are still on the ship with their life jackets on, fighting for survival every day _ by simply going to work and trying to do their job as the water rushes on board and the onlookers bet against them.

One Chrysler worker, who still goes about this business, told me there is still some hope left.

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"I see people who are passionate about bringing the company back," he said, pointing out all the erroneous predictions this industry has seen over the years.

C'mon, he countered: Weren't GM, Ford and Chrysler all supposed to file for bankruptcy by now? Wasn't Rick Wagoner supposed to lose his job as GM's CEO? Wasn't Nissan supposed to merge with GM? Wasn't Chrysler supposed to merge with GM just last year?

Despite the litany of false predictions, though, even he wasn't completely sure Chrysler could really survive this crisis.

"Personally, I could see it going either way," he confessed.

So is it really too late for Chrysler? For all those workers? Their families?

Are there any real believers left _ even at Chrysler?

Officials with Chrysler, and the private equity firm that owns the company, have insisted they are still committed to saving the automaker, founded in 1925.

On Dec. 19, Cerberus said in a statement that it "feels an overwhelming responsibility to this industry, the millions of jobs affected by its plight, the potential affect on the already fragile economy, and to America itself."

On Jan. 2, Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli spoke of the $4 billion as an "initial loan" that "will allow the company to continue an orderly restructuring."

Most folks, including me, have grown accustomed to treating corporate statements like these with the skeptical eye they deserve.

But in the face of such long odds _ as the U.S.S. Chrysler begins to submerge and the bow tips up _ I've never hoped so much that they were telling the truth.

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(Sarah A. Webster is automotive editor of the Detroit Free Press. She can be reached at 313-222-5394 or swebster@freepress.com.)

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© 2009, Detroit Free Press.