Skip to content
Catholic Online Logo

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

1/29/2013 (1 year ago)

Catholic Online (www.catholic.org)

Predictions have largely failed 'four times in a row'

Skeptics say that a preliminary draft of a report by the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change contains new evidence -- of 20 years of overstated global warming. Not scheduled for publication, the report was leaked by someone involved in the IPCC's review process. Bloggers combing through the report discovered a chart comparing the four temperature models the group has published since 1990, and each has overstated the rise in temperature that Earth actually experienced.

'For instance, it would have been impossible for the IPCC to predict if a volcanic eruption might temporarily cool the Earth, as the Mount Pinatubo eruption did in 1991,' says one critic of the report.

"For instance, it would have been impossible for the IPCC to predict if a volcanic eruption might temporarily cool the Earth, as the Mount Pinatubo eruption did in 1991," says one critic of the report.

Highlights

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

Catholic Online (www.catholic.org)

1/29/2013 (1 year ago)

Published in Green

Keywords: Climate change, Mount Pinatubo, graphs, report, skepticism, predictions, projections


LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - "Temperatures have not risen nearly as much as almost all of the climate models predicted," Roy Spencer, a climatologist at the University of Alabama at Huntsville says.

"Their predictions have largely failed, four times in a row... what that means is that it's time for them to re-evaluate," Spencer added.

The IPCC graph shows that the midpoints of the various models predicted that the world would warm by between about 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit and 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit between 1990 and 2012. In fact, actual warming was much less than that: 0.28 F, according the data the IPCC cites.

Some argue that this doesn't discount that the IPCC models are wrong, others argue.

"It's important to keep in mind that there are natural short-term variations in global temperature that happen right alongside human-induced warming," Aaron Huertas, of the Union of Concerned Scientists says.

"For instance, it would have been impossible for the IPCC to predict if a volcanic eruption might temporarily cool the Earth, as the Mount Pinatubo eruption did in 1991."

The report draft also notes that "the model projections . do not fully account for natural variability."

Other types of natural anomalies include solar variability and weather patterns such as the El NiŮo southern oscillation.

In fact, one of the IPCC's models missed the actual warming trend entirely. In other words, the actual temperatures were outside its "margin of error." In the other three models, the actual warming trend fell within the very lower bounds of what they predicted would happen.

One scientist who recently published a study that found that the IPCC predictions were very accurate argues that it is likely wrong. "The IPCC graph you refer to is just a draft version which still has a number of problems that will be ironed out," Potsdam University physics professor Stefan Rahmstorf said.

Skeptics such as Spencer also say that the chart does not mean that global warming is a hoax. "The IPCC's claim is that they are 90 percent sure that humans have 'contributed to' the observed warming. Hell, even I would agree with that innocuous statement."

Greenhouse gases are having less of an affect on climate than the IPCC thought. "It is evidence that CO2 is not nearly as strong a climate driver as the IPCC has been assuming. This is the possibility they do not allow to be considered, because it would end all of their policy-changing goals," Spencer said.

---


Pope Francis: end world hunger through 'Prayer and Action'


© 2014 - Distributed by THE NEWS CONSORTIUM

Pope Francis Prayer Intentions for July 2014
Sports:
That sports may always be occasions of human fraternity and growth.
Lay Missionaries: That the Holy Spirit may support the work of the laity who proclaim the Gospel in the poorest countries.



Comments


More Green

Bald eagles make a surprising comback in California! Watch

Image of Bald eagles, which had disappeared from the Channel Islands in the 1960s, have made a comeback following a re-population effort started in 2002.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

For the first time in more than 50 years, a nesting pair of bald eagles have been found on San Clemente Island, officials reported on July 17. LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - This discovery means that bald eagles have re-established territories on five of the ... continue reading


TO FEED THE HUNGRY: More efficient agricultural systems could feed three billion more people Watch

Image of When it comes to water, rice and wheat are the crops that create the most demand for irrigation worldwide.

By Megan Rowling, Thomson Reuters Foundation

Targeted efforts to make food systems more efficient in key parts of the world could meet the basic calorie needs of 3 billion extra people and reduce the environmental footprint of agriculture without using additional land and water, researchers said on Thursday. ... continue reading


Four wings: Amazing prehistoric raptor fossil found in China Watch

Image of This nightmare creature traveled light. Only four feet long and nine pounds heavy, the Changyu lived about 125 million years ago.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

Since gaining popularity in the "Jurassic Park" movies, raptors, next to the Tyrannosaurus Rex, are probably the most feared dinosaur by modern man. Short and compact with razor sharp teeth and claws, their speed and agility make for real nightmare fodder. ... continue reading


Ancient flesh crawler 'resurrected' with computer generated imagery Watch

Image of Comparing them to living arachnids, the researchers used an open source computer graphic program called

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

There would be few reasons as to why anyone would want to bring an ugly spider, long extinct, back to life. Thanks to computer generated imagery generated by fossils of a 410 million-year-old arachnid, however, scientists have been able to recreate how it ... continue reading


What is a 'zombie' weather station and why is it bad? Watch

Image of Zombie outbreak locations? No, this is a map of  NOAA weather stations that are not made up.

By Marshall Connolly, Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

Forbes has published an article which alleges that U.S. climate scientists have manipulated climate data, using "zombie" weather stations that did not exist and "estimating" temperature data there. The article also states that a standardized network of NOAA monitoring ... continue reading


Despite climate change -- Antarctic sea ice hits second all-time record in a week Watch

Image of Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center says that somehow counter-intuitively that sea ice growth was specifically on account of global warming.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

The given notion is that Arctic ice is melting, sending levels of seawater over their usual levels. However - Arctic ice INCREASED to an all-time high in a week. Why is this? Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center says that somehow ... continue reading


Watch out! This Brazilian snake can melt a man's flesh Watch

Image of The golden lancehead viper is one of the worlds deadliest snakes.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

A 4.6 million square foot island located 20 miles off the coast of Brazil is the only place on earth where the terrifyingly deadly golden lancehead viper can be found. LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - Nicknamed "Snake Island", Ilha de Queimada Grande is off ... continue reading


Yosemite National Park celebrates its 150th birthday Watch

Image of Classic nature photographer Ansel Adams frequently visited the Yosemite National Park.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

Visited by people from around the world, Yosemite National Park marked its 150th anniversary this week. The park has been in existence ever since 16th American President Abraham Lincoln signed an act protecting the park for generations of visitors. LOS ANGELES, ... continue reading


Learning a lesson about myself - Climate change skeptic shakes my belief in man-made global warming Watch

Image of It would be very upsetting to learn all this is a lie.

By Marshall Connolly, Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

I had a distressing Monday that I have not yet written about. A report in the Telegraph quoted a blogger who claimed to have evidence that NASA and NOAA falsified climate data to show the planet is warming when in reality it's actually cooling. It gave me an ... continue reading


HEDGE AGAINST EXTINCTION? First orangutan born through artificial insemination Watch

Image of Orangutans once thrived throughout Southeast Asia. The colorful breed now resides only in the Indonesian islands of Borneo and Sumatra.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

Maggie is a beautiful 22-year-old orangutan and the first of her species to give birth through assisted reproductive technology. Her still unnamed baby was born on May 20 at the LEO center in Connecticut with a team of veterinarians and an infertility doctor ... continue reading


All Green News

Newsletters

Newsletter Sign Up icon

Stay up to date with the latest news, information, and special offers

Daily Readings

Reading 1, Jeremiah 1:1, 4-10
1 The words of Jeremiah son of Hilkiah, one of the ... Read More

Psalm, Psalms 71:1-2, 3-4, 5-6, 15, 17
1 In you, Yahweh, I take refuge, I shall never be put ... Read More

Gospel, Matthew 13:1-9
1 That same day, Jesus left the house and sat by the ... Read More

Saint of the Day

Saint of the Day for July 23rd, 2014 Image

St. Bridget of Sweden
July 23: Saint Birgitta was the daughter of Upplandís Lagman, Birger ... Read More

Inform, Inspire & Ignite Logo

Find Catholic Online on Facebook and get updates right in your live feed.

Become a fan of Catholic Online on Facebook


Follow Catholic Online on Twitter and get News and Product updates.

Follow us on Twitter